There has been some interesting talk in the past week about deterrence and escalation and proportionality and I’m beginning to wonder if those words still mean what I thought they mean, like the word “secret” on the front page of a newspaper. But it’s important to review what they really mean because getting this wrong can have significant consequences.
In the news this week, Alexei Navalny, the dissident Russian politician who was serving 30 years in an Arctic Gulag, died. Navalny was a longtime rival of Tsar Vlad, had campaigned against corruption - Putin’s corruption - and after returning to Russia in 2021, had been found guilty of “extremism” and “fraud” - what were clearly nonsense charges, and sentenced to 30 years in prison.
Much of the modern way of war springs from the writings of 4 men from the 1920s: Gen. Giulio Douhet, LtGen. Walther Wever, Marshal Hugh Montague “Boom” Trenchard, and of course, Col. Billy Mitchell.All were believers in “strategic bombing,” the idea that bombing the right targets would destroy morale while also destroying industrial capacity and disabling lines of communication, and drive any nation to surrender.Over the years the theory, particularly in the west, has undergone some modifications
The attempted assassination of former President Trump has now had a chance to settle in just a bit, and in capitals around the world I would suspect that there are senior planning teams taking out their portfolios and looking at their assumptions.
by Navy Capt. (Ret.) Pete O'Brien, Distinguished Fellow and Chairman, Project Sentinel
Pete Hegseth, soon to be the Secretary of Defense (one hopes), believes the...